What last week actually looked like
The Worst Week of 2026
−17%BTC weekly
$5.8BTotal liquidations
85%Long positions wiped
BTC went from $73,680 to $60,462 in five days. ETH fell 21 percent. Solana fell 24 percent. If you are holding spot and you are still here, you did fine. The people who got hurt were the ones using leverage. The week had three moments that made it ugly.
Wave 1
The Saylor Narrative Break
Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 BTC , $2.5 million against a $60 billion position. But Saylor had spent five years as the guy who never sells. When he did, even a tiny bit, the market treated it like a confession. Leveraged bulls who had been piling in got spooked and started exiting.
Wave 2
13 Consecutive Days of ETF Outflows
Bitcoin ETFs had been bleeding money for 13 straight days , $4.4 billion cumulative. Every day institutions were pulling money out and that selling hit the actual Bitcoin market, not the futures market. Day after day of that kind of selling pressure adds up fast.
Wave 3
Friday NFP Shock
Friday's US jobs report came in stronger than expected. A strong jobs market means the central bank is less likely to cut interest rates, which means institutional money stays in safer investments instead of flowing into Bitcoin. The Nasdaq dropped 5 percent and Bitcoin followed it down. Over 300,000 traders got automatically closed out in a single day.
13 Consecutive Days of Bitcoin ETF Outflows , May 22 to June 10, 2026
Daily net flows in $M , total $4.4B out across 13 sessions. Cascade week highlighted.
What does that all mean for this week? The forced selling is largely done. Nearly $5.8 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly closed across five sessions. That is the market cleaning itself out. The people who were overextended are gone.
$5.8 Billion in Forced Closures , Week of June 2-6
Bulls: ~$5.1B (85%)Bet on prices going up, automatically closed when they fell
Bears: ~$0.7B (15%)Bet on prices going down, closed when prices held
Who was on the wrong side of the market
What is left is a cleaner market looking for a reason to move in either direction. Wednesday gives it one.
Market structure observation
One Thing Worth Knowing About This Market
Funding Rate Divergence
Here is something most people missed last week. The fee that perpetual futures traders pay each other , called the funding rate , was doing completely opposite things on different exchanges at the same time. The reason tells you something important about how this market works now.
Retail Exchanges (CDC etc.)
When ETF investors sold their shares, the market makers running those ETFs had to sell actual spot Bitcoin to rebalance. That spot selling pushed the spot price down faster than the perpetual futures price. When spot falls below the perp, the perp trades at a premium , and that premium is what drives the funding rate up. Longs in the perp market pay shorts.
Funding: Elevated and positive
Deribit (Professional options)
Options dealers on Deribit were long gamma , meaning they owned options and needed to stay hedged as the market moved. When prices fall, long gamma dealers have to sell the underlying to stay delta neutral. They were selling perpetuals to do that. All that perp selling on Deribit pushed the perpetual below spot. When the perp trades below spot, the funding rate goes near zero or negative , shorts pay longs.
Funding: Near zero or negative
Same asset. Same moment. Two completely different participant bases creating opposite pressure and opposite funding signals. The funding rate on your exchange no longer tells you how the whole market is positioned , it tells you who trades on that platform and what they were doing under pressure.
What is on the calendar this week
Not a Quiet Week. Everything Points to Wednesday.
| Day |
Event |
What to Watch |
What Could Happen |
Products Affected |
| Mon Jun 8 |
Watch No major data |
Does BTC hold above $62,000? Hold on decent volume = selling done. Break below = not over yet. |
Hold = recovery intact. Break below = more selling ahead. |
BTC · ETH · All crypto perps |
| Tue Jun 9 |
Secondary Japan GDP |
A GDP miss weakens the yen and ripples into global risk sentiment. |
Miss = risk-off Asian session. Beat = positive mood. |
Currency markets · RWA perps |
| Wed Jun 10 |
Key Event US Inflation 8:30am ET |
Biggest event of the week. Hot number kills rate cut hopes. Soft number could bring buyers back. |
Hot = more ETF outflows, BTC tests $60K. Soft = buyers return. |
BTC · ETH · Gold · Oil · Stocks |
| Thu Jun 11 |
Watch PPI + ECB Decision |
PPI confirms or contradicts Wednesday. ECB sets the European rate tone. |
PPI + ECB = is inflation a US problem or global? |
Gold · Oil · European stocks |
| Fri Jun 12 |
Watch Consumer Sentiment |
Watch the inflation expectations number inside this report. |
Expectations rising = Fed stays tough. Falling = door opens for cuts. |
Gold · Crypto |
How to think about your position
Monday and Tuesday are setup days. Wednesday is the event.
Spot holders
You made it through the worst week of the year without getting automatically closed out. The forced selling pressure is largely gone now. Your risk going into Wednesday is whether the inflation number comes in hot and keeps institutional money on the sidelines. If it does, the ETF outflows that have been hammering Bitcoin for two weeks may not stop. Size your position for that possibility.
Traders using leverage
You are carrying borrowed exposure into the biggest data event of the month. If Wednesday's number comes in soft, the recovery could be sharp. If it comes in hot, there is not much support below $60,000 right now because the leverage that used to sit there has been wiped out. Know the exact price where you get closed out before Wednesday morning, not while you are watching it happen.
No position
$60,000 is the level to watch. Decide in advance what you will do if Wednesday's number moves things decisively in either direction. Deciding in real time while it is happening is how people make bad calls. And if you want to know what history says happens after a forced selling event like this one, that is exactly what the next section covers.
Is the selling actually over
Layer 2: Derivatives Mastery
What History Says Happens Next
That is the question sitting under everything else this week. The forced selling looks largely done but looks like is not the same as confirmed. Professionals check three specific data points to know for sure: how much total positions in the market dropped, what percentage of the forced closures were bulls versus bears, and how large the total volume was versus past events. When those three line up correctly, the cascade is confirmed over and the recovery pattern becomes predictable. They line up this week.
This same pattern played out twice in the past year , October 2025 and February 2026. Both times the market recovered significantly within a week once the data confirmed. How it played out, what to look for, and how to use this framework to express a view before Wednesday is covered in full in the Harmonic Derivatives Mastery liquidation cascade lesson.
Read before Wednesday
The Harmonic Derivatives Mastery liquidation cascade lesson walks through all three events including this one. Read it before Wednesday so you know what you are looking at.
Read the lesson →