BTC$63,500
ETH$1,660
DateJun 13, 2026
Harmonic Weekly
Weekly Close · Strategy Education
From Liquidation Cascade to Finding Footing
BTC closes the week at $63,500. ETH at $1,660. Not a dramatic recovery. Not a collapse either. The market opened Monday in the wreckage of the worst week of 2026 and spent five days doing exactly what the opening blog said it would do: finding footing.
What the week delivered
Four of Five Called Correctly. The ECB Was the Surprise.
The opening blog laid out the full week calendar and told you what to watch on each day. Here is how each one played out.
| Day | Event | What We Said | What Happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 8 | No major data | Hold above $62,000 signals selling done. | BTC held $62,000 all week. Recovery confirmed. | As Expected |
| Tue Jun 9 | Japan GDP | Moves currency markets and risk mood. | GDP beat at 1.8% annualized vs 1.3% expected. | Beat |
| Wed Jun 10 | US Inflation | Hot print pressures crypto. In-line stabilizes ETF outflows. | CPI came in as expected. Core contained at 2.9%. | In Line |
| Thu Jun 11 | ECB Decision | Watch the tone. Does Europe signal higher rates? | ECB hiked 25bps to 2.25% , first since 2023. | Surprise |
| Fri Jun 13 | Consumer Sentiment | Inflation expectations the key number. | Sentiment beat. Expectations eased to 4.6%. | Positive |
Four of five resolved as framed or better. The ECB was the exception , raising rates for the first time since 2023 citing Iran-driven energy inflation. That one adds complexity to the FOMC calculus heading into next week.
Who got caught on the wrong side
The Cascade Was One-Sided. The Recovery Week Was Not.
Here is the simplest way to understand what happened across these two weeks. The cascade was driven almost entirely by bulls getting stopped out. This week the picture flipped.
Cascade week $5.8B at 88/12 long/short vs recovery week ~$2B at 50/50
The first chart tells the whole story of the cascade: 88 percent of the $5.8 billion in forced closures were bulls , people who had bet on prices going up and got automatically closed out when they fell. This week the total dropped to around $2 billion and split roughly even between bulls and bears. That is what a normal market looks like. The one-sided steamroller is over.
The institutions came back on Friday
Five Days of Outflows. One Day That Changed the Picture.
Daily net flows in $M , Monday through Friday
ETFs bled money Monday through Thursday. Wednesday was the worst day at $214 million out. But Monday saw ETH funds draw $82 million in on the same day BTC funds bled $91 million out , that is rotation within crypto, not exit from it. Thursday narrowed sharply to $19 million with IBIT posting its first inflow of the week. Friday confirmed the turn: $85.8 million came back into Bitcoin ETFs, snapping five straight days of outflows. When the largest fund in the space leads both the selling mid-week and the recovery on Friday, the move is institutional not emotional.
What comes next
Two Things Hanging in the Balance Going Into Next Week
The Iran deal. Negotiators on both sides agreed the deal text this week. Trump said he needed a few days before signing. A ceremony is expected this weekend. If it goes through, the main reason energy prices have been elevated for three months starts to unwind. Lower energy means lower inflation. Lower inflation means the central bank has more room to ease up on rates. That is a clear tailwind for crypto. The catch: this deal has almost happened four times before. Until it is actually signed it is not done.
The Fed meets Wednesday. Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair and this is his first press conference. The rate decision is already known , no change. What the market is watching is whether he signals that the Iran deal changes the inflation picture and whether rate cuts could come back into play later this year. A calm, open-minded press conference and the setup for a continued recovery above $65,000 is in place. A tough stance on rates keeps the pressure on.
One thing to keep an eye on: professional trading venues and retail crypto exchanges have been running very different rates on perpetual futures contracts this week. If ETF buyers come back strongly next week, that gap could close or flip. That dynamic and what to do with it is something the Harmonic curriculum covers in depth.
Layer 2: Derivatives Mastery
The cascade played out exactly the way the Harmonic Derivatives Mastery liquidation lesson said it would. Mechanical, self-limiting, and followed by a sharp reversal. That lesson is available now. This was week one of watching the pattern play out in real markets.
This content is produced by Harmonic for educational purposes. It is strategy education, not investment advice.