Three weeks ago we told you Saylor sold 32 BTC and the market freaked out. We said it mattered more than the size suggested. Here is the full story behind why, and why the machine he built to buy Bitcoin is currently switched off. That matters for anyone trying to call a breakout this week.
Closing the loop
We Left a Thread Hanging Three Weeks Ago
In our June 8 opener we described the Saylor BTC sale as Wave 1 of the cascade. We called it a narrative break that spooked leveraged bulls. What we did not explain at the time was the mechanism behind it. Specifically: why did Saylor sell? The answer is that he sold Bitcoin to pay the dividend on STRC, the very instrument he created to raise capital to buy Bitcoin. The machine built to accumulate BTC forced him to sell BTC to service its own obligations. That is the full circle.
That instrument is called STRC. It closed Thursday at $88.59. It has not traded at par since mid-May. And the funding channel it powers is currently suspended. Here is what that means.
Plain English: What STRC is
Saylor Built a Machine to Buy Bitcoin With Other People's Money
Strategy, the company Michael Saylor runs, holds 846,842 Bitcoin. To keep buying it needed a steady stream of capital. STRC, formally the Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, launched in July 2025 and raised over $2.5 billion at its IPO. By the end of Q1 2026 it had raised $5.58 billion in total, funding the purchase of approximately 77,000 BTC in 2026 alone. When it works, investors get a high yield instrument, Strategy gets cheap capital, and Bitcoin gets a consistent institutional bid.
Plain English: What STRC actually is
A Yield Instrument Engineered to Stay at $100. Not a Normal Stock.
STRC is legally classified as preferred stock but it does not behave like one. A normal preferred stock pays a fixed dividend and its price drifts based on interest rates and credit conditions, like a bond. Investors buy it for the income and expect the price to fluctuate within a range.
STRC was designed to do something different. Strategy built it to compete with money market funds, the kind of cash-like instrument that sits in your brokerage account and earns a steady yield. The entire mechanism is built around holding $100 per share. Strategy adjusts the dividend rate every month specifically to pull the price back to par if it drifts. The goal is not price appreciation. The goal is stability at par with a high dividend.
Think of it less like a stock and more like a structured yield product with a $100 anchor. The product works as long as that anchor holds. When it does not, everything downstream breaks down.
The flywheel in one sentence
STRC above $100 means Strategy issues shares, raises cash, and buys BTC. STRC below $100 means the program stops.
The diagram below shows both states.
The STRC flywheel: self-reinforcing when above par, chain broken when below
What happened
The Machine Has Been Slowing Down Since June 1
The first signal came on June 1 when Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 BTC, worth about $2.5 million, to cover STRC dividend obligations. We covered this in the June 8 opener as a narrative break. Saylor had spent four years publicly committed to never selling. When he did, even 0.004 percent of his holdings, the market read it as a signal that the dividend obligations were putting pressure on the operation.
From there the pressure built steadily. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on June 5. STRC dropped to $93.40. The Fed surprised hawkishly on June 17. Bitcoin fell further. And on June 18, the day before Juneteenth, STRC hit an intraday low of $82.53 before closing at $88.59 on volume of 10.7 million shares, roughly three times its daily average. That is its lowest level since the instrument launched in July 2025.
The at-the-market program is now suspended. Strategy is not buying Bitcoin through the STRC channel. That is confirmed.
STRC Par
$100.00
ATM active above here
STRC Close
$88.59
ATM suspended
STRC Low
$82.53
Jun 18, all-time low
Discount to Par
11.4%
As of Friday close
Why it matters
One of the More Structural BTC Buyers in This Market Is Currently Sidelined.
That program ran continuously regardless of price action, creating a structural bid underneath the market through periods of retail weakness. It is off right now. And while STRC is trading this far below par the at-the-market program stays suspended. That is one fewer source of consistent buying pressure than there was six weeks ago.
There is more pressure on STRC beyond just the Bitcoin price. A competing instrument, Strive's SATA preferred stock, is offering a 13 percent annual yield with daily dividend payments, versus STRC's 11.5 percent paid semi-monthly. Capital has been rotating toward the higher-yielding alternative, pulling demand away from STRC and making it harder for the price to recover to par on its own. Strategy also bought back $1.5 billion of its convertible notes at an 8 percent discount in May, a move the market read as a sign of balance sheet stress rather than strength. The common stock MSTR is now trading around $112, down roughly 80 percent from its November 2024 all-time high.
The institutional buying mechanism that has supported BTC prices for the past year is not active through this channel right now. Whether STRC recovers to par depends on Bitcoin price action and the macro environment. Thursday's PCE print matters for both.
What is on the calendar this week
A Light Week With One Consequential Thursday.
The economic calendar is light. Most of the week is setup. Thursday is PCE. Friday is the Deribit quarterly expiry. Two key events on back-to-back days that between them will set the picture for Q3.
Plain English: What the June 26 Deribit options expiry is
$10.6 Billion in Bitcoin Options Settle the Day After PCE
An options contract gives the buyer the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific price on a specific date. When that date arrives, the contract either gets exercised or it expires worthless. Deribit is the world's largest crypto options exchange and settles its quarterly contracts on the last Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This Friday June 26 is the June quarterly expiry. There are $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options contracts set to expire at 8am UTC. Of that $10.6 billion, roughly $8.6 billion, or 80 percent, is currently out of the money. That means most of those contracts expire worthless at current prices. The max pain level, the price where the largest number of contracts expire worthless and the options sellers make the most money, sits at $74,000. That is about 17 percent above where BTC is trading right now.
In the days before a large expiry, price often gravitates toward the max pain level as dealers adjust their hedges. Whether that dynamic plays out this week is an open question. PCE prints Thursday at 8:30am ET. The options expiry settles Friday at 8am UTC. Two consequential events on back-to-back days. Thursday sets the macro tone. Friday forces the derivatives reset.
Deribit BTC options expiry size by settlement date ($B notional)
Does BTC hold $63,000 on the Tokyo open? First session after Juneteenth weekend gives you a clean read on where sentiment sits.
Hold above $63K = neutral. Break below = sellers still in control.
BTC · ETH · All perps
Tue Jun 23
Watch
Consumer confidence
Secondary data. Context for Thursday's PCE print. A sharp miss would add to the stagflation narrative.
Miss = risk-off. Beat = modest relief but not a market mover.
Equities · Gold
Wed Jun 24
Watch
Durable goods orders
Light data day. Watch for any Fed speaker commentary ahead of Thursday's PCE. Any Warsh remarks move markets.
Quiet unless a Fed speaker surprises.
Dollar · Rates
Thu Jun 25
Key Event
PCE 8:30am ET
The Fed's preferred inflation measure. May data. Wells Fargo forecasting PCE up 0.5% month over month, annual rate to 4.1%. Hot confirms the hike narrative. Soft starts to unwind it. Sets the tone going into Friday's options expiry.
Hot PCE: dollar stays bid, rate hike narrative firms, pressure on risk assets continues. Soft PCE: rate hike odds pull back, dollar eases, conditions improve for a recovery. September hike currently priced at 86%.
BTC · Gold · Dollar · Everything
Fri Jun 26
Key Event
Deribit $10.6B options expiry 8am UTC
June quarterly expiry. $10.6 billion in BTC options settle at 8am UTC. Max pain at $74,000, roughly 17 percent above current spot. 80 percent of open interest is currently out of the money. PCE direction from Thursday sets the tone going into settlement.
Price often gravitates toward max pain as dealers adjust hedges. Hot PCE Thursday means more pressure below max pain. Soft PCE Thursday improves the odds of a squeeze toward $74,000. Two key events, back to back days.
BTC options · Deribit · Spot BTC
How to think about your position
Two Events. Back to Back. Decide in Advance.
Spot holders
You are holding into a week with two key events on back-to-back days. The STRC structural bid is absent, the dollar is elevated, and the Fed's preferred inflation measure prints Thursday. If PCE comes in hot the macro headwind stays in place and the absent STRC bid means less structural support below. If PCE comes in soft the rate hike narrative starts to unwind and the conditions for STRC to recover toward par improve. The Iran deal remains the structural tailwind on the other side of the equation. Thursday tells you which environment you are in for the next month.
Traders using leverage
PCE prints Thursday. The $10.6 billion Deribit expiry settles Friday at 8am UTC. Two key events on back-to-back days. A major macro print Thursday followed by a large options settlement Friday is a two-day sequence where moves can get exaggerated. Know your liquidation price before Thursday morning. The funding rate environment remains in the range covered in Lesson 2 and Lesson 3. Low funding means the cost to express a view in either direction is cheap right now.
No position
Thursday gives you the clearest signal of the week. If PCE comes in soft and BTC holds or moves higher, the macro headwind is easing and the setup improves. If PCE comes in hot and BTC breaks below $60,000, the structure gets materially harder. Either way, decide what you will do in each scenario before Thursday morning. Deciding in real time while it is happening is how people make bad calls.
Layer 2: Derivatives Mastery
The STRC flywheel is a carry trade at institutional scale. Strategy raises capital cheaply through a structured instrument and deploys it into a long BTC position. That is the same mechanic Lesson 3 covers at retail scale, using a spread instrument to manufacture cheap exposure. The difference is Saylor is doing it with preferred equity at $2.5 billion and you can do it with the futures basis at whatever size you want. The mechanics are identical. The environment is the same.